Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/16/2022

Sep 16, 2022

Ed Nienaber
Vice President, Grain Division
The USDA released its latest round of crop production estimated numbers on Monday. The initial market reaction to this bullish report had beans trading 60 cents higher and pulled corn up a dime on the day. Since then, we have traded corn down 10 cents on the week and the market has taken back half of the soybean gains as we approach the closing bell on Friday. The final crop rating for the year has Ohio at 60% good to excellent on both corn and beans, with the overall rating at just above 50%. The USDA is predicting the Ohio corn and bean crop to be the second best on record with corn at 186 bushel per acre and beans at 56.0. The basis continues to move towards new crop values as harvest is beginning to pick up in southern Indiana and Illinois. The weather outlook for the next week to ten days is showing warmer and drier than normal for the end of summer. This is bringing selling to the market as farmers are looking at quick shipment premiums and moving cash bushels as it hits the combine. We had some very positive news this week as the Class One Railroads have reached a tentative agreement to avert a potential strike. The annual Farm Science Review is this coming week in London, OH., and it looks like the weather is going to be fantastic. Hope to see you there! Be safe and have a great week.
Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing
Good afternoon. We are starting to see a few new crop bushels coming in and later next week, we should really be seeing harvest picking up speed. So let the fun begin. The rally late last week in the corn market sure faced some head winds this week and has pulled back around 15 cents on the futures. The basis has also begun to slide as harvest is picking up speed from south to north. There will still be some opportunities here and there on a spot basis, but they will go in a flash. The bean market also has taken it on the chin this week losing some 60 cents as I draft this article. This week, Argentina sold a large number of soybeans on the world market at a level well below the US and Brazil. The appreciation of the dollar is not helping our cause either. Basis level for beans are also weaker as we lost export business and with harvest picking up speed. I know this is a bit on the short side and I do apologize for that. Have a great weekend.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)
Harvest is here. We are seeing some corn and very early soybeans being harvested in the area as a local processor is making it attractive to run early with the current price premium.

Wow is all I can say about Monday’s soybean price move. We saw the USDA reduce soybean carryout to around 200MB - the lowest carryout in years. We have since given some of that back as the market is waiting to see more combines in the field to get a better handle on what is out there. 

I have been beating the drum for the last month to get old crop cleaned up - the market premium is about gone, and unless you want to carry into next year, it is time to throw in the towel and get last year’s crop sold.

The industry dodged a bullet this week as the railroads and their worker unions came to an agreement. This would have been a disaster if they decided to strike for any period of time. The federal government got involved, and the two sides came to an agreement.

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