Weekly Crop Commentary 9/25/2026

Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon.

This was the week of President Trump’s summit with China’s President Xi. While few details were released, President Trump said farmers would be very happy with the outcome. We may hear more over the weekend or early next week. For now, corn and soybean markets remain mostly range-bound, with no major bullish or bearish news driving prices. Weather and international developments continue to be the main issues traders are watching.

Because harvest got a late start, many soybean crushers are running short on supplies and offering strong premiums for soybeans they can get right away. Corn processors are in better shape for now, but they could face the same pressure if the heart of corn harvest is still about three weeks away.

The good news is that we appear to have a five-day stretch of favorable weather ahead. Hopefully, fields will dry enough for harvest activity to pick up later this weekend and into early next week. Everyone is ready to get started, and this window may finally give us the chance to get harvest rolling.

Briana Holtzman

Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

The grain markets were very mixed this week, unable to choose a steady direction. A lot of this uncertainty was due to the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on Thursday this week. This meeting lacked any news to excite the markets, but it was decided that the tariff truce will extend through January.

It is finally feeling like true fall outside, with a wet and cool week behind us. The weather has not been very beneficial for a quick dry-down for getting in the field for harvest. Over my way, we are still a week or so from seeing a good amount of new crop grain being brought in. While the forecast for next week is still showing cooler temps, there is less rain and more sun to help remove water.

Have a great weekend!

Cheryl Crawford

Grain Merchandiser, Delaware (Region 2)

Happy Fall Everyone!

Hope everyone is getting ready for harvest; it is right around the corner here in central Ohio, just waiting on the fields to dry out.

It was good to see some of you at Farm Science Review this week, even though it was a little cold, rainy, and muddy.

This week in the corn market had some good demand news, but we are entering the period where actual harvest bushels are showing up. So, basis and nearby cash bids become especially important to watch.

The bean market is trade news sensitive right now, with the U.S. and China meeting not really giving us a positive outlook for the markets.

Wheat is getting pulled in several directions: weather, Black Sea, and U.S. planting.

Have a safe and happy harvest!

Zane Robison

Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Grain markets slipped this week as a lack of fresh news and limited harvest progress allowed prices to drift lower. Corn has bounced back today but spent much of the morning trading at four-week lows. The classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario played out around the much-anticipated Xi-Trump meeting. With no additional purchase announcements, including potential corn purchases, the bulls have been left with little to run on. Export sales for the current marketing year, which began in September, are running 8% behind the pace needed to meet USDA estimates. Granted, this has a lot to do with slow harvest progress and local processors having to gobble up everything they can get their hands on.

Soybeans seem to be treading water for now; with little indication of which direction they want to go. We’ve been stuck in the same 40¢ trading range for the past four weeks, with little fresh news to push prices in either direction. On one hand, the soybean crop looks more promising than the corn crop, making a yield increase possible. On the other hand, China continues to buy beans, and crush margins remain very strong. This suggests that even if we do see a yield increase, supplies could remain somewhat tight. We also have to remember that speculative funds are still holding massive net-long positions. These positions could continue to contribute to volatility in a commodity market looking for its next big news story.

Weather this week was less than ideal, with cold and wet conditions sticking around for much of the week. The consensus seems to be that next week will mark the start of large-scale harvesting. Please let us know your plans so we can adjust our hours accordingly. Have a great weekend, and we look forward to another safe and successful harvest!

Lisa Warne

Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

It’s the last Friday in September, and the weather has prevented a significant amount of harvest activity so far. According to RainDrop, the average rainfall for this area year-to-date is 32”. We have received about 43” this year. Comparatively, the average annual total rainfall is around 41”, so we’ve surpassed that with 3 months to go. I’ve included an interesting map from drought.gov showing the 60-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation, showing 200+% for the Marysville area.

Of the small amount of new corn and beans we have received here at Marysville, the beans were mature, and the corn moisture ranged from 22- 26%. We’ve tested half a dozen samples of corn for vomitoxin, and I’m glad to report no issues so far. Concerning yields, it’s been too early to determine reportable data.

As for the market, we have set back from the highs we saw earlier this month, but it’s still sitting very well compared to six weeks ago. If you have not sold any grain yet, I’d strongly recommend locking in some bushels at these levels for delivery now or early 2027. If you’re putting grain in the bin, you can get a floor price established on some bushels to protect downside. Could the market continue to climb? Sure. But it could drop just as easily if a headline broke that scared the speculators out of the market. If you’re interested in learning about some of our alternative contracts, give one of us a call or stop in. Have a great harvest, and we’ll see you very soon!

Ralph Wince

Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon, the big China Meeting for this week has come and gone with no big announcements for the agriculture sector, as of this writing. If you remember my comments from last week, I talked about how long the funds (speculator) were in this market and how we need to keep them fed. With no news from this week’s meetings with China, we are seeing some selling going on.

I have talked to a number of farmers this week, and most would say that they are 7-10 days away from doing any beans, and those would be the early ones. We are finally seeing a dry stretch of weather come our way, and it’s very much needed to just dry the soil out as well as help the crops towards the finish line.

Finally, I will talk briefly on the rapid rise of diesel fuel. First, the rumor that we are running out of diesel in this country is false. We are a net exporter of diesel and have been for many years. Is there a shortage of diesel from the world perspective? The answer is yes; that’s why we are seeing prices rally, and from everything that I have read, we are exporting more diesel than we normally do. Why? Because we live in a world market and companies can export for a better price. It has been reported in the last day or two that the Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been reaching out to a number of refineries to voluntarily reduce diesel exports. Will that happen? That’s to be seen yet. I know it sounds good to put a halt on diesel exports, but that can be a double-edged sword as well. If we do that, what happens when this passes and we have to much product, and now we can’t get rid of it. This will be a story that continues to develop. Continue to stay tuned.

Have a great weekend, and let’s hope that the rains continue to stay away so we can get this crop harvested and put in the bins!!!

Morgan Hefner

Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

Corn, beans, and wheat were all seeing some pressure this week following another rally on Monday. After the recent strength we’ve seen, the markets are giving some of the gains back from the previous weeks.

Attention this week was on the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. There was some anticipation that we could see additional details on Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. So far, there hasn’t been much information surrounding the topic for the markets to react to. China released an official statement, but not many details were included. If the U.S. releases information about the meeting over the weekend with any exciting news, we will see the reaction on the open Sunday night.

With not much news coming from the meeting, the markets have struggled to find something to keep the recent rally going. Combined with that, some harvest pressure in the near future will certainly affect the markets as well. It looks like we will get a few sunny days this weekend to get things dried up a bit and hopefully get harvest rolling soon.

As the full swing of harvest is nearing, please reach out to your regional grain merchandiser if you would like to receive harvest hours updates via text, or if you have any questions. We are always here to help in any way we can!